Arizona is set to play its last road game of the 2024 season on Saturday. This crucial matchup against TCU in Fort Worth holds the key to their bowl hopes. The Horned Frogs, currently at 6-4 and 4-3 in the Big 12, are among the nine teams still vying for a spot in the conference title game. Sonny Dykes, a former UA assistant and offensive coordinator under Mike Stoops from 2007-09, now leads TCU.

Understanding TCU's Turnaround

TCU has shown remarkable improvement after a rough patch. In their last four contests, they've only turned the ball over four times, a significant improvement from the more than two giveaways per game in the first six games. They've also cleaned up their penalty problem, averaging just 44 penalty yards per game since the win against Utah, compared to over 70 penalty yards per game in the first six weeks. Wide receiver Savion Williams has become a key hybrid running back-receiver, especially in short-yardage situations. On defense, the entire unit has steadily improved, with edge rusher Devean Deal leading the charge with four sacks in the last four games and safety Bud Clark recording two interceptions and ranking third in tackles.

Keys to TCU's Success

Avoiding self-inflicted wounds has been crucial for TCU. By minimizing turnovers and penalties, they've become a more disciplined team. Savion Williams' versatility on offense has added a new dimension to their game. On defense, the improvement in pass-rushing and playmaking by Deal and Clark has been significant.

QB Josh Hoover's Performance

Sophomore QB Josh Hoover leads the Big 12 in passing with 323.3 yards per game and has completed at least 65 percent of his passes in 8 of 10 contests. His precision and touch are remarkable, and he does a great job throwing into the second level. However, he does struggle with turnovers, having eight interceptions and six fumbles.

Offensive Approach and Expectations

TCU will continue its unbalanced offensive approach throughout the season. They lack a true three-down back, with Cam Cook struggling before being replaced by a committee. Savion Williams has been the leading rusher in recent games, but offensive coordinator Kendall Briles will rely more on Hoover's arm. The receiving core is one of the best in the nation, and Hoover does a great job getting the ball to his playmakers. While no one is expected to step up significantly, it would be nice to see Cook build on his performance against Oklahoma State.

Defensive Concerns for Arizona

Edge rusher Devean Deal is a major concern for Arizona. His four sacks in the last four games have been a game-changer for TCU's pass-rush defense. Safety Bud Clark is also a key playmaker, with two interceptions and third-place tackles. Defending Tetairoa McMillan won't be easy as TCU will likely use a combination of strategies to contain him.

Sonny Dykes' Situation

Sonny Dykes took TCU to the national title game in his first season in 2022 but has since struggled with a 11-11 record and a below.500 record in Big 12 play. There was growing unrest from the fan base, but he is still a solid coach. The staff he's assembled, especially offensive coordinator Kendall Briles, has been a point of contention. There's a decent chance Briles won't return, but it would take a major collapse for TCU to fire Dykes.

Prediction

Before the season, I was high on Arizona and even predicted them to compete for the Big 12 Championship. However, Arizona has underperformed. I project a 31-17 win in TCU's favor. If Arizona was better on the ground, the outcome could be closer.