Uncover the Hidden Stories in College Football's Playoff Race

Stock up

Georgia, a force to be reckoned with, witnessed Carson Beck's best performance of the season. Throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee, the Bulldogs reverted to their dominant form from 2021-23. Despite some fluctuations in his play this year, Beck's heroics against a tough Tennessee defense have boosted Georgia's chances of a deep playoff run. With UMass and Georgia Tech still on the schedule, a 10-2 record seems likely. The Tennessee game was a must-win, as a three-loss team might struggle to secure an at-large bid in the current playoff picture. Georgia has the schedule, similar to Alabama, to make a strong case. Currently projected as the No. 8 seed and hosting Notre Dame in the first round, the Bulldogs have an 88% chance to make the field and a 53% chance to host a game. Their odds are among the best nationally, highlighting their potential.

The SEC CFP and title odds further emphasize Georgia's position. With a 94% chance of a CFP bid and a 36% chance of winning the SEC title, Georgia is in a good spot. Even if it comes down to conference championship games, winning out could secure a home playoff game. Georgia's performance and schedule make them a team to watch in the playoff race.

Stock down

Tennessee's 8-1 record with a win over Alabama was overshadowed by their ranking behind undefeated Indiana and BYU, who were behind one-loss teams. This doesn't bode well for their chances in the rankings. The SEC has several teams with two losses in good positions for at-large bids, and Tennessee is likely to fall below Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia after the loss to Georgia. Their resume mainly consists of the win over Alabama, and the committee doesn't seem to view their schedule as strong. As a result, their chances of getting an at-large spot have decreased. From a high of 70% before the October loss to Arkansas to 34% currently, Tennessee is on the bubble behind SMU. If they want to make the field, they need to win out against UTEP and Vanderbilt and hope other teams lose.

BYU, on the other hand, played with fire and got burned. A home loss to Kansas, a team better than their 4-6 record, tarnished their resume. After narrow wins against Utah and Oklahoma State, this loss is a significant setback. With a road trip to Arizona State and a home game against Houston remaining, their chances of winning the Big 12 have diminished. Colorado, led by Deion Sanders, now has a 59% chance to win the conference, taking the lead from BYU. BYU's playoff chances dropped from 63% to 22% after the Kansas loss. Their low rating in the playoff rankings over the past few weeks was justified, as their model shows four Big 12 teams projected to be better. To make the CFP, BYU will likely need to win out, including the Big 12 championship.

Group of 5 Playoff picture

Boise State survived a scare against San Jose State, holding on to a one-score lead before two touchdowns in the final three minutes. However, starting the game down 14-0 and with Washington State losing (their only ranked win), the Broncos took a hit to their resume. There is a chance UNLV could move into the rankings to help Boise State. As for the other Group of 5 team vying for an automatic bid, it's likely to be Army or Tulane from the AAC if Boise State gets upset. Both teams have secured spots in the AAC title game and appeared in last week's rankings. Army plays Notre Dame on Saturday, and a loss could cause them to fall out of the rankings due to their weak schedule. Tulane has Memphis left to keep their playoff hopes alive. If either team loses before winning the AAC championship, it will be difficult for them to rank high enough for the automatic bid. Despite the challenges, Boise State is in the best shape but still has work to do.