Uncover the Value in this Monday Night Football Clash

Texans vs. Cowboys Odds

The Texans enter this game as road favorites, with a spread of -7.5 and a moneyline of -340. The total is set at over/under 41.5 points. After a lengthy absence, star wide receiver Nico Collins is back in the fold, but the Texans' offense has been inconsistent all year, ranking just 29th in early down EPA/play. Even with Collins healthy in the first five weeks, they ranked 31st in early down EPA/play.

On the other side, the Cowboys have their own set of challenges. Micah Parsons is back after missing much of the season with an injury and wasted no time with five pressures and two sacks against the Eagles last week. However, the Cowboys have struggled to defend the run all year, ranking dead last in EPA/rush allowed. We should expect a heavy dose of Joe Mixon on Monday night.

When the Texans Have the Ball

Nico Collins is still PFF's highest-graded wide receiver this season, with a league-leading 3.5 yards per route run. He had 32 catches for 567 yards and three touchdowns in five games before his hamstring injury. But the Texans' offensive line has been a struggle, with C.J. Stroud pressured at a 31.9 percent rate, the second-highest of all qualified quarterbacks.

The Texans' offense needs to find consistency if they want to have success against the Cowboys. With Collins back, they have a weapon, but they'll need to protect Stroud better and make better plays in the passing game.

When the Cowboys Have the Ball

Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury, leaving the Cowboys' offense in a tough spot. They have the 28th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA and can't rely on their passing game either, with Cooper Rush completing just 26-of-48 passes (54 percent) over the last two weeks for 160 yards and a brutal 3.3 YPA clip.

DeMeco Ryans' defense ranks second in DVOA this year, loaded with talent at all three levels and ranking top five against the run and pass. While star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is out with an injury, this defense is still a force to be reckoned with.

Final Verdict

The Texans are priced as road favorites, and with Joe Mixon likely to dominate against a porous Cowboys run defense in a positive game script, there will be some offensive success. But Stroud will likely face consistent pressure from Parsons and company. Meanwhile, it's difficult to envision the Cowboys finding much offensive success against an elite Texans defense without Prescott. With both offenses ranking bottom five in early down EPA/play on the season, I can only look to the under in this game. Best Bet: Under 41.5 points (-110, ESPN BET)

Why Trust New York Post Betting? Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He's up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.