Baseball's awards season is in full swing, and this week, the National League Rookie of the Year award was presented. Paul Skenes emerged as the winner, but the decision wasn't straightforward. As an NL Rookie of the Year voter for the sixth time, I feel it's crucial to explain my reasoning.

Unraveling the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Decision

Numbers and Their Limitations

In baseball, numbers play a significant role, but they have their downsides. For instance, fWAR can underdescribe a pitcher's contributions, while bWAR risks overdescribing. Take Tom Glavine in 2002; his long career allowed for a more educated assessment. With Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill, fWAR gives Merrill a 5.3 to 4.3 edge due to his StatCast defensive numbers, but bWAR sees Skenes with the edge. The volatility of defensive metrics over a single season emphasizes the need to be cautious with WAR.

It's not enough to rely solely on WAR. We need to consider other factors like context and growth. Skenes debuted in a low-pressure environment with the Pirates, not asked to throw 180 innings. Merrill, on the other hand, faced a tougher road with the Padres. The Padres traded Juan Soto, and Merrill had to adjust to major league pitching while playing center field, a position he had never played before.

The Path to the Award

Merrill's path was more challenging. He was trusted with the center field position from day one, despite minimal high minors experience. His performance improved as the playoff race heated up, slugging.571 from June on and ranking 11th in baseball with 4.4 WAR. His defense offered real value, although its true level remains uncertain.

Jackson Chourio got my third-place vote. He had a solid season with a 117 wRC+ and 3.9 WAR. Choosing between him and Masyn Winn was close. I'm more confident in Chourio's defensive numbers. Tyler Fitzgerald also had a great season but played fewer games. Joey Ortiz was an early favorite but struggled in the second half. Michael Busch hit well but lacked positional value, and Pete Crow-Armstrong's defense was great but his bat wasn't.

Final Thoughts

The slightly higher degree of difficulty Merrill faced was enough for me to put him in first place. Voting for these awards is a weighty responsibility that demands care and candor. I look forward to the next round of ballots and the opportunities to share my thoughts.