Navigating the Highs and Lows: The Rollercoaster Ride of MLB's Rising Stars

Nov 15, 2024 at 12:00 PM
In the ever-evolving landscape of Major League Baseball, the pursuit of greatness is a constant challenge. Last year, we profiled four promising players poised to make the leap from good to great in 2024. However, the results were a mixed bag, with injuries and inconsistencies plaguing their journeys. As we look ahead to the 2025 season and beyond, we delve deeper into the stories of these talented individuals, exploring what went wrong, what went right, and the prospects for their future success.

Unlocking the Potential: A Closer Look at MLB's Emerging Superstars

Triston Casas: Weathering the Storm, Preparing for Stardom

Triston Casas, the promising first baseman for the Boston Red Sox, had the most promising year among the original quartet, yet his performance was still somewhat underwhelming. Casas, who was limited to just 63 games in 2024, managed a respectable wRC+ of 119, a slight dip from his impressive rookie campaign in 2023 (130 wRC+).The young slugger's season never truly got off the ground, as he suffered a rib cage injury on April 20. Prior to the setback, Casas was on a tear, slashing .244/.344/.513 with six home runs and a .269 ISO. At the time of his injury, only Mike Trout and Marcell Ozuna had more home runs, hinting at the breakout that was just around the corner.After returning to the lineup on August 16, Casas hit .242/.333/.439 with seven home runs and a .197 ISO, showcasing his ability to be 12% better than the league average with the bat. However, the 25-year-old admitted that he was still playing through some lingering pain, which likely contributed to his inconsistent performance.The small sample sizes of Casas' partial-season outings make it challenging to draw definitive conclusions about his 2024 campaign. However, the underlying trends suggest that the young slugger is on the right track. He has shown a marked improvement in his plate discipline, taking fewer "hittable pitches" in 2023, a trend that took a step back in 2024 due to the missed time and injury.Casas' ceiling remains as high as it was a year ago, and with his proven ability to get on base and unleash his thunderous raw power, the path to stardom is still within reach. As he enters his age-25 season, the key for Casas will be finding the right balance between his disciplined approach and aggressively attacking hittable pitches, which could unlock the true potential that has captivated the Red Sox faithful.

Royce Lewis: Battling Injuries, Chasing Stardom

Royce Lewis, the versatile infielder for the Minnesota Twins, entered the 2024 season with high expectations after a promising debut in 2023, where he hit .307/.364/.549 (152 wRC+) with 17 home runs in just 70 games.The Twins faithful eagerly awaited to see what Lewis could accomplish with a full, healthy season. Their hopes were briefly realized on Opening Day, as Lewis homered in the first inning and singled in the third, both off Cole Ragans. However, the excitement was short-lived, as Lewis strained his quad running the bases and was sidelined until early June.Upon his return, Lewis showcased his flair for the dramatic, homering in his first two games back and hitting .276/.340/.644 (171 wRC+) with nine home runs in 23 games. Unfortunately, his season was once again interrupted, this time by a right adductor strain. While he did manage to homer in his second game back, Lewis ultimately struggled to regain his early-season form, slashing .207/.270/.350 (74 wRC+) with six home runs in 58 games to close out the year.The underlying metrics suggest that Lewis' struggles may have been partly due to his increased chase rate and reduced zone-swing percentage after his second injury. This could indicate that he was either chasing more out of frustration or simply wasn't at full health.Lewis' professional career has been defined by his inability to stay on the field consistently. Prior to 2024, his per-game production hinted at the potential for stardom, but the question remains whether he can maintain that level of performance for an extended period. The tools are undoubtedly there, as evidenced by his batted ball metrics and swing decisions, but his health will be the key factor in determining his future success.

Bobby Miller: Navigating the Ups and Downs of Pitching Stardom

Bobby Miller, the hard-throwing right-hander for the Los Angeles Dodgers, appeared poised for a Cy Young-caliber season after a dominant debut in 2024. However, his campaign quickly took a turn for the worse, as he struggled with injuries and inconsistency.Miller's season-opening performance was nothing short of electric, as he showcased his overpowering stuff and pinpoint control. The stat line and the eye test both confirmed that the young hurler had taken a significant step forward. Unfortunately, the momentum was short-lived, as Miller's next two outings saw him allow seven earned runs on nine hits and five walks over a combined 5.2 innings.The culprit behind Miller's sudden decline was a shoulder inflammation diagnosis, which led to a stint in the minors and a return to the Dodgers' rotation that was anything but smooth. Over his next four appearances, Miller surrendered 19 earned runs, with a concerning 9:12 K/BB ratio. He was then shuttled between the majors and minors for the remainder of the season, also dealing with a knee issue in the final month.When the dust settled, Miller's 2024 campaign was a disappointment, as he posted an 8.52 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP and an alarming 11.6% walk rate. Among starters with at least 50 innings, he allowed the highest HR/FB% and had the worst ERA in the league.The primary driver of Miller's struggles was the sudden decline in the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball, which had a -10 run value and allowed a .463 xwOBA, one of the worst marks in the majors. His velocity dropped from 99 mph in 2023 to 97.6 mph, and he also lost some of the vertical ride that made his fastball so dominant the previous year.Additionally, Miller's slider, which had been a key weapon in his arsenal, also lost velocity and experienced a change in shape, further contributing to his overall decline.The more significant issue, however, was Miller's inability to locate his pitches effectively. The stark contrast in his slider locations between 2023 and 2024 highlighted the challenges he faced in commanding his arsenal.Given the electric stuff Miller displayed in his debut and the subsequent shoulder injury, it's fair to wonder if his body was never quite right after that first outing. Staying healthy will be the primary focus for the young right-hander in 2025, as he looks to regain the command and control that made him a rising star in the first place.

Grayson Rodriguez: Overcoming Injuries, Cementing His Status

While the other members of the original quartet dealt with their fair share of injuries, Grayson Rodriguez, the talented right-hander for the Baltimore Orioles, managed to make his mark despite his own setbacks.Rodriguez, who was profiled before the 2024 season, had emphasized the importance of ditching his cutter, a decision that led to a second-half breakout as a rookie in 2023. Since returning from the minors in the latter half of that season, Rodriguez has made 33 starts with a 3.35 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and a 3.62 xFIP.During this stretch, Rodriguez has ranked among the league's elite in several key metrics, including generating swinging strikes and limiting home runs. His ability to maintain this level of performance, even while dealing with shoulder inflammation in early May and a lat strain in late July, is a testament to his resilience and the quality of his stuff.While Rodriguez did have a few blowup outings, allowing 6+ earned runs, he never allowed more than three in his other 17 appearances. This suggests that there is still significant upside to be unlocked if he can avoid the occasional rough outing.As Rodriguez enters his age-25 season, the path to stardom is clear. With two consecutive seasons of over 100 innings under his belt, the only thing standing between him and recognition as one of the game's best is the ability to handle a true ace-level workload.The combination of Rodriguez's electric stuff, improved command, and proven ability to limit damage makes him a prime candidate to cement his status as an elite pitcher in 2025 and beyond. If he can stay healthy and continue to refine his arsenal, the Orioles may have a true ace on their hands, one capable of leading them to new heights in the competitive AL East.