Unearthing Potential: A Deep Dive into Diamondbacks' Pitching Prospects
Introduction to the Diamondbacks' Pitching Landscape
For several weeks, our focus has been on the hitting talent within the D-backs' farm system. Now, we shift our attention to the pitching side, beginning with a group of promising individuals who narrowly missed the top 15 rankings but are nonetheless deserving of recognition.
The Enduring Challenge of Pitcher Development for the Diamondbacks
While the D-backs have a respectable track record in cultivating position players, their success in developing top-tier starting pitchers over their three-decade history has been notably limited. The pool of homegrown, successful starters shrinks even further when excluding those who began their professional careers elsewhere or achieved prominence only after being traded. Regrettably, the Diamondbacks rank among the least effective teams in nurturing pitching talent, and currently, few prospects in their system project as elite starting pitchers, at least from my perspective.
Navigating the Complexities of Ranking Pitching Prospects
Attempting to rank the Diamondbacks' pitching prospects often feels like a daunting and thankless task, particularly given the widespread disagreement among evaluators. My research involved consulting various published rankings and engaging with fellow experts and alumni from SnakePit, revealing a notable lack of consensus. In my ranking process, I prioritize players who are currently demonstrating success over those who merely possess future potential, when evaluating individuals with similar skill sets. Furthermore, starting pitchers consistently receive higher rankings than relief pitchers, especially single-inning specialists. The confidence level in a prospect's ability to remain a starter is a significant factor contributing to ranking discrepancies, explaining why my evaluations might differ from others.
Promising Prospects and Their Unique Journeys
Patrick Forbes, a high draft pick, is a consistent presence on most major publications' top prospect lists for the Diamondbacks, though he doesn't appear on mine. My reluctance to rank him stems from his professional debut being delayed nine months post-draft and signing. Despite this, his high draft status—a compensatory pick for losing Christian Walker—underscores his significant potential. At the University of Louisville, Forbes showcased a fastball reaching 100 mph with an unconventional delivery. His late start in college pitching suggests a potentially extended development timeline, further complicated by an early April flexor injury that will keep him sidelined until at least late May.
Dean Livingston, selected 123rd overall in the 2025 draft, is another highly-ranked prospect yet to make his professional debut. Unlike Forbes, Livingston is a high school product who only joined his team's starting rotation in his senior year. Including Livingston among the D-backs' top ten pitching prospects isn't far-fetched, given his 6'4" frame, projectable right-handed arm, quick and intriguing mechanics, and a fastball that hit 97.5 mph at the 2025 draft combine. His pitch repertoire includes an already above-average two-seam and four-seam fastball, a developing low-80s slider, and a high-70s curveball that requires refinement. His raw potential is undeniable, and his rapid ascent through the prospect rankings would not be surprising.
Yilber Diaz frequently appears on top prospect lists but is absent from mine for several reasons. While his triple-digit velocity and overall stuff are undoubtedly impressive, offering one of the highest ceilings in the system, his persistent struggles with command and control have hindered his success in MLB. Despite making his professional debut two seasons ago, he retains his rookie status. Currently with Reno, he's had an outstanding start to the 2026 season, allowing only one earned run, four hits, four walks, and one hit by pitch over 11 ⅔ innings, while striking out eighteen batters. His 0.77 ERA is closely aligned with his 2.04 FIP and 2.62 xFIP, though this is a very small sample size, and performance can fluctuate rapidly as the weather warms up in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Christian Mena made a brief Major League debut in 2024 before a right forearm strain sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Last year, a right shoulder strain again limited him to just nine Triple-A starts (44 2/3 innings) and three relief appearances in the majors, with his last game played on June 6. Fellow Snakepit author Makakilo provided an excellent review of Mena's 2025 season. At just 23, Mena is younger than some of the pitchers I will rank. If he were healthy, I would consider placing him near the top of the pitching prospects. However, Mena has yet to appear in a game in 2026, and there is no information on his return.
Brian Curley, a 2025 third-round pick from the University of Georgia, is another player I am not yet ranking, though unlike Forbes and Livingston, he has already made his professional debut this season. He started his college season as a closer but finished as the Bulldog's staff ace. Fellow SnakePit author Preston Salisbury considers Curley his top pitcher in the system, a player I had completely overlooked since the draft.
Next week, we will explore additional honorable mentions and commence the ranking of the remaining pitching prospect
