Navigating the New Era: The Big 12's Quest for Gridiron Prominence
Shrinking Opportunities for Marquee Non-Conference Matchups
The ability of Big 12 institutions to arrange significant non-conference contests against formidable Power Four opponents is notably diminishing. This trend is largely attributable to the SEC and ACC's adoption of a nine-game conference schedule, alongside the Big 12's current difficulties in securing at-large berths in the College Football Playoff.
Impact of CFP Expansion and Conference Realignment
As the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams, the Big 12 stands as the sole Power Four conference yet to secure an at-large playoff team. Furthermore, no Big 12 team has emerged victorious in a CFP game since 2022. This lack of recent success, combined with conference realignments, has contributed to scheduling complexities. For instance, while BYU has managed to secure a series with Notre Dame, other programs like Texas Tech and Arizona State are finding it increasingly difficult to arrange non-conference games against Power Four adversaries.
Cancellations and Rescheduling Challenges
Several Big 12 teams have experienced cancellations of future series. Arizona State, for example, has lost matchups with LSU, Florida, and Texas. Similarly, Texas Tech's future series with Mississippi State was scrapped, and their 2027 game against NC State was also called off. Recent reports indicate that USC withdrew from scheduling negotiations with Texas Tech, and Texas A&M also pulled out of potential talks for a 2027 game. As a result, Texas Tech currently has no Power Four non-conference opponents scheduled until 2030, excluding potential postseason play.
A Sobering Reality for the Big 12
This situation presents a stark reality for the Big 12 as the broader college sports environment shifts, influenced by changes in revenue sharing, conference expansion, and the league's recent playoff performance. Scott Draper, the Big 12's chief football and competition officer, acknowledged the disruptions caused by changes in the SEC and ACC, leading to significant movement in scheduled games.
Commissioner's Vision for Playoff Expansion
Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark has expressed support for expanding the CFP to 24 teams. Such an expansion would provide Big 12 programs with more opportunities to make a significant impact against established "blue blood" programs within the FBS. However, for now, the playoff format remains at 12 teams, making strategic non-conference scheduling crucial for building competitive resumes.
Utah Schools Leading the Way in Future Scheduling
Two of the Big 12's most successful programs in securing future matchups against other Power Four schools are BYU and the University of Utah. BYU, despite a series cancellation with Cal due to ACC scheduling changes, filled the void with a two-game series against independent Notre Dame, offering a prime opportunity for the Big 12 to make a statement this season. BYU has at least one Power Four opponent scheduled annually through 2033, with another in 2035.
Utah's Robust Future Schedule
The University of Utah also boasts a challenging future schedule, including hosting an SEC school for only the second time when they face Arkansas. In 2027, the Utes will play Miami in Las Vegas, a team that was a national runner-up in 2025. Utah's non-conference schedule through 2033 features at least one Power Four opponent each year, including teams from all three other Power Four conferences, notably a home-and-home series with LSU in 2031.
Challenges for Other Big 12 Programs
Unfortunately, this level of future scheduling is not consistent across the Big 12. Three schools—Baylor, Houston, and Kansas State—currently have only two future non-conference games scheduled against power conference opponents. This disparity underscores the broader trend the Big 12 faces as it strives to maintain parity with the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC.
Addressing the Concerns and Future Outlook
Draper acknowledged the challenges but emphasized that the league is not overly concerned, focusing instead on collaborating with schools to monitor the situation and ensure they have every opportunity to build optimal schedules for their programs and the conference as a whole.
