The Hot Seat: Who Will Be First to Go?
The Precarious Position of Florida State's Mike Norvell
Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell finds himself at the top of many lists for coaches on the hot seat. His tenure has been marked by a disappointing 7-17 record over the last two seasons, earning him the lowest possible hot-seat rating from CBS Sports. Despite a substantial buyout clause exceeding $50 million, which has provided some financial insulation, his team's challenging early schedule in 2026 could quickly exacerbate his precarious standing. With key matchups against SMU and Alabama in September, a difficult start is a distinct possibility, though his buyout might delay any immediate decisions until later in the season.
Dave Aranda's Battle for Survival at Baylor
Dave Aranda is entering his seventh year as Baylor's head coach, having overseen four losing seasons in his previous six. Following a 5-7 record in 2025, many expected his dismissal then, but the resignation of the former athletic director, Mack Rhoades, offered a temporary reprieve. The Bears' schedule begins with seemingly manageable home games against Prairie View A&M and Louisiana Tech. However, a brutal closing stretch, featuring away games against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston, could prove to be Aranda's undoing if his team enters it with a less-than-stellar record.
Luke Fickell's Uphill Battle at Wisconsin
Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell's record of 17-21 has seen a consistent decline in wins each season, culminating in just four victories in 2025. While two of these wins were against ranked Big Ten opponents, saving his job in the previous season, the pressure is mounting. The Badgers face a formidable start to 2026, opening against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field and later traveling to Penn State. Although early losses might be excused, a demanding later schedule, including road games at UCLA and Iowa, means Fickell must avoid a third consecutive losing season to secure his position.
Mike Locksley's Challenging October at Maryland
Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley has recorded back-to-back 4-8 seasons, yet the expectations for his program have historically been modest. The Terrapins' early September schedule includes a game at UConn and a home game against Virginia Tech, where a split outcome is plausible. However, Locksley faces a particularly brutal October, with road trips to Nebraska and Ohio State. Despite the potential for quarterback Malik Washington to provide a competitive edge, Maryland's late bye week, following a series of tough games, positions Locksley as a strong candidate for an early dismissal, albeit not the absolute first.
Bill O'Brien: The Frontrunner for First Firing
Former NFL coach Bill O'Brien, currently at Boston College, is my primary prediction for the first college football coach to be fired in 2026. After winning seven games in his inaugural season, his team managed only two victories in 2025, enduring a ten-game losing streak. His early 2026 schedule is fraught with challenging, potentially unwinnable games. Facing Cincinnati, Rutgers (in a poignant Red Bandanna Game), Virginia Tech, and SMU in the first five weeks, with only Maine offering a likely win, a 1-4 start is highly probable. The subsequent bye week in mid-October could provide the perfect window for Boston College's leadership to make a change. Adding to the instability, transfer quarterback Mason McKenzie's recent comments about the complexity of O'Brien's offensive system suggest a team still struggling with integration. With demanding matchups against Notre Dame and Miami looming in November, O'Brien will need his team to pull off significant upsets to avert an early exit.
