In the dynamic world of fantasy football, Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital compass, guiding managers through the complexities of drafting. With most drafts now conducted online, ADP data is readily available, shaping collective consensus and influencing player selections. However, like all statistical indicators, ADP is not static; it evolves in response to a multitude of factors, from pre-season reports to expert commentary. A keen understanding of these fluctuations allows astute managers to capitalize on emerging opportunities and mitigate risks associated with declining prospects.
Fantasy Football Player Movement: Key Risers and Fallers
As the 2026 NFL season draws near, the fantasy football landscape is constantly shifting, with several players experiencing notable changes in their Average Draft Position (ADP). These shifts are critical for managers looking to gain an edge on draft day.
ADP Climbers:
Among the significant climbers, De'Zhaun Stribling, the rookie wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers, is generating buzz. Despite a modest initial increase of 3.6 spots, Stribling's potential is growing. With key receivers like Ricky Pearsall (knee) sidelined and Mike Evans (quad) and Christian Kirk (calf) facing practice absences, Stribling's opportunity in the 49ers' offense expands. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have lauded his physical attributes and contributions to the run game. Given the team's receiving corps challenges, including Brandon Aiyuk's potential departure, Stribling could see a significant target share, especially with Brock Purdy's efficient play, making him an intriguing late-round pick.
New York Giants' wideout Malik Nabers has seen a 5.3-spot jump, but many experts argue his ADP is still surprisingly low. Despite tearing his ACL last September, Nabers is reportedly tracking for a Week 1 start, avoiding the PUP list and impressing in camp. His historical collegiate performance — with 202 targets and 125 receptions in his first 18 games — places him among elite company like Odell Beckham Jr. and Ja'Marr Chase. With less competition in New York and potentially improved quarterback play from Jaxson Dart, Nabers is poised for a breakout. Savvy drafters should consider him even in the late second or early third round.
Veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs, now with the Washington Commanders, leads the risers with a remarkable 14.8-spot ascent. After signing a one-year, $12 million deal, Diggs is expected to be a primary target for Jayden Daniels in his hometown. Despite being 32, Diggs finished as WR17 last season, demonstrating continued productivity with 85 catches for over 1,000 yards. His efficiency, averaging 2.4 yards per route run, ranks highly among top receivers. Even in the 10th round, Diggs presents considerable value, with a strong possibility of exceeding Terry McLaurin's targets and delivering high-end WR3 or low-end WR2 numbers.
ADP Descenders:
On the other side of the coin, Chuba Hubbard of the Carolina Panthers has fallen by 4.0 spots. Reports indicate that rookie Jonathon Brooks, drafted 46th overall, is impressing in training camp and is expected to lead the backfield. While Hubbard has performed well in Brooks' absence, the fantasy community is adjusting to the idea of Brooks as the primary back. Hubbard will likely remain involved, possibly as a 1B option, but his declining ADP suggests he’s becoming less appealing at his current draft cost. Managers might find better value in other receivers in this range.
New York Jets' rookie wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. has experienced a 5.9-spot drop, largely due to a lack of recognition among more casual fantasy players. Despite being drafted ahead of Stribling and having an excellent collegiate season, Cooper doesn't have the immediate compelling narrative of his rising counterpart. As a strong, physical receiver with impressive YAC skills, he complements Garrett Wilson well. Currently a late-round flier, Cooper could emerge as a sleeper if he continues to make highlight plays in camp.
Finally, Philadelphia Eagles' wideout Makai Lemon has seen his ADP plummet by 7.5 spots, primarily due to a nagging hamstring injury. Missing critical practice time in the offseason raises concerns about his readiness and the potential for re-injury. While Lemon possesses significant upside, especially with A.J. Brown's departure and DeVonta Smith's own hamstring issues, his current health status makes him a risky pick in the single-digit rounds. His ADP will likely continue to fall until he demonstrates full health and begins to thrive in camp.
This evolving landscape underscores the importance of staying informed beyond initial rankings. Injuries, coaching decisions, and pre-season performances constantly reshape player values. For fantasy managers, this means a continuous adjustment of draft strategies, looking not just at where players are currently being picked, but understanding the underlying reasons for their movement. By doing so, they can identify sleepers poised for a breakout and avoid overvalued assets, ultimately increasing their chances of securing a championship-winning roster.
