Despite a recent heartbreaking loss to Texas, ESPN's prominent analyst Paul Finebaum remains steadfast in his conviction that the Ohio State Buckeyes are still destined for the college football playoffs. This assertion is rooted in the expanded 12-team playoff structure, which he believes will prioritize teams with formidable schedules, even if it means accommodating a team with a 9-3 record. Finebaum's outlook offers a contrasting view to immediate reactions, suggesting that the broader context of a team's performance and opponent quality will outweigh a singular defeat.
The Buckeyes' recent encounter with the Texas Longhorns proved to be a dramatic affair, with Ohio State initially dominating the game, leading 23-3 for a significant portion. However, a stunning fourth-quarter resurgence by Texas saw them clinch a narrow 24-23 victory, courtesy of Hollywood Smothers' late touchdown. This unexpected turn of events led many to question Ohio State's playoff aspirations. Finebaum, during an appearance on 97.1 The Fan's Beau Bishop, unequivocally stated that this loss would not significantly hinder their chances. He went as far as to guarantee that a 9-3 Ohio State team would make the playoffs, emphasizing the need to consider the circumstances of such a defeat.
Finebaum's argument hinges on the intricacies of the revamped 12-team playoff system. This format reserves five automatic berths for conference champions and a Group of Six representative, leaving seven at-large spots for the selection committee. Within this framework, the committee places considerable emphasis on the strength of a team's schedule. Consequently, a team like Ohio State, navigating a demanding schedule and finishing 9-3, could realistically be ranked higher than an 11-1 team that has faced less challenging opponents. This nuanced approach allows for a more holistic evaluation of team quality, rather than a sole focus on win-loss records.
Furthermore, Finebaum's analysis takes into account the caliber of the opponent and Ohio State's performance prior to their fourth-quarter setback. While he did not shy away from criticizing head coach Ryan Day, humorously dubbing the loss "another Ryan Day choke joke," his stance softened when discussing playoff implications. He maintains that, despite the late-game unraveling, Ohio State still appears to be a top-tier team, even suggesting they outshone Texas across various aspects of the game. The analyst's perspective highlights the importance of evaluating a team's overall strength and potential, rather than allowing a single adverse outcome to dictate their postseason fate.
The dramatic turn of events in Austin saw Texas capitalize on Ohio State's late-game struggles. Arch Manning ignited the comeback with a crucial touchdown pass, while running backs Smothers and Raleek Brown provided the necessary ground game, accumulating 158 all-purpose yards and two rushing touchdowns. Texas' receivers, including Wingo and Emmett Mosley, also stepped up with key receptions, and Emaree Winston's fourth-down conversion kept the Longhorns' hopes alive. A stout defensive performance in the second half, where Texas conceded only three points after giving up 23 in the first three quarters, sealed their remarkable victory. Intriguingly, this loss might not be as detrimental to Ohio State's resume as a less significant defeat would have been, as Texas is currently ranked No. 1 nationally. ESPN's FPI still places Ryan Day's team at No. 1, making them the only 1-1 team in the model's top 10.
Adding weight to Finebaum's argument is an unexpected ally: Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. Having experienced the frustration of a strong 9-3 season that didn't lead to a playoff berth, Sarkisian understands the nuances of resume evaluation. He has previously contended that his team was not adequately rewarded for facing Ohio State in Columbus and now advocates for the Buckeyes to receive fair consideration despite their recent loss. He explicitly stated, "I hope Ohio State does not get punished for that game Saturday night. They played a heck of a game…I hope if they end up being a 9-3 team the committee can appreciate the fact they came to Austin, Texas, in September." This sentiment underscores the understanding that certain losses, particularly against elite opponents on the road, can be viewed differently by the selection committee.
Looking ahead, Ohio State faces a challenging schedule, with formidable opponents like Indiana, Oregon, and Michigan still on the horizon. Another defeat is certainly a possibility, a fact Finebaum himself acknowledges. However, his core belief is that not all losses are created equal. The context, the strength of the opponent, and the overall schedule play a crucial role in the committee's final assessment. Therefore, while the loss to Texas was a bitter pill to swallow, Finebaum suggests that it could ultimately be perceived as a challenging, resume-building contest rather than a definitive roadblock to their playoff aspirations.
