The NFL's Risky Quarterback Wagers
The Continuing Gamble on Quarterbacks in the NFL Draft
A recurring question arises: why do NFL teams persist in selecting quarterbacks in the initial round who lack the analytical indicators for success at the professional level? Is it a fear of missing out on a potential Pro Bowler, or perhaps an apprehension of being wrong?
The Unreliable Science of Quarterback Projection
Despite significant investments, NFL front offices consistently squander high first-round picks on quarterbacks who never evolve into franchise players. The reality is, no NFL team possesses a foolproof, scientific method for accurately predicting a quarterback's potential at the NFL level.
A Decade of Draft Data Reveals a Troubling Trend
From 2016 through the most recent draft, 39 quarterbacks were chosen in the first round. Of the 26 selected between 2016 and 2022, a staggering 19 are no longer with their original teams. This means only a meager 26% of first-round quarterbacks from that period have remained with the teams that drafted them, a statistic that severely undermines the rationale behind many first-round selections.
Examining the Success Rate of First-Round Quarterbacks
The only seven quarterbacks from the 2016-2022 drafts still with their original teams are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence. This low retention rate brings into question the justification for investing a first-round pick in certain quarterbacks who were never projected to be future franchise cornerstones.
The Harsh Reality: Numbers Expose the Flaws in Draft Strategy
Delving deeper into the first-round quarterbacks from 2016-2022, their average tenure with their drafting organizations stands at a mere 4.5 years. The 2020 draft class, featuring Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love, is the sole exception where every first-round quarterback played at least six seasons with their initial team.
Super Bowl Appearances: A Rare Feat for First-Round QBs
A particularly striking statistic reveals that among these 26 first-round quarterbacks, only Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, and Joe Burrow have reached a Super Bowl. Furthermore, only Mahomes and Burrow played in the Super Bowl for the teams that originally drafted them, with Carson Wentz being sidelined due to injury during the 2017-18 season, missing Super Bowl LII.
Identifying Questionable First-Round Quarterback Selections
It is increasingly difficult to rationalize the first-round drafting of certain quarterbacks. Several picks clearly lacked the potential to be first-round caliber players, including Paxton Lynch (2016 – 26th), Mitchell Trubisky (2017 – 2nd), Josh Rosen (2018 – 10th), Dwayne Haskins (2019 – 15th), Zach Wilson (2021 – 2nd), Trey Lance (2021 – 3rd), Justin Fields (2021 – 11th), Mac Jones (2021 – 15th), Kenny Pickett (2022 – 20th), Anthony Richardson (2023 – 4th), and J.J. McCarthy (2024 – 10th).
The Cost of Misjudgment: Critical Draft Mistakes
An argument can also be made that Carolina's decision to make Bryce Young the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft was a significant error. The teams that drafted these players made critical misjudgments, with some even trading valuable draft capital to move up in the selection order. A more prudent approach would have been to forgo these quarterbacks entirely, allowing another organization to expend their first-round pick, or to hope they would still be available in later rounds.
The Unjustifiable Nature of Certain First-Round Quarterback Picks
There is no legitimate justification for drafting a first-round quarterback who neither possesses the ideal physical attributes nor was projected to become a future franchise signal-caller.
