The Phillies' Zack Wheeler: A Pitching Phenomenon

Nov 19, 2024 at 1:05 PM
In December 2020, a report emerged suggesting that the Phillies were open to trading Zack Wheeler to address debts from the pandemic-shortened season. However, John Middleton firmly denied these claims. He stated, "If they offered me Babe Ruth, I wouldn't trade [Wheeler]." This denial not only showcased Middleton's unwavering stance but also set the stage for Wheeler's remarkable career with the Phillies.

Zack Wheeler's Contract and Performance

Wheeler's recently completed five-year, $118 million contract stands as the best free-agent deal in Phillies history. Since 2020, he leads all pitchers in quality starts (90), ranks second in innings (829⅓), and sixth in ERA (2.94), strikeouts (899), and WHIP (1.03). His value, as calculated by Fangraphs, is an impressive $197.5 million, considering he was paid $104.5 million, adjusted for prorated 2020 salary. In October, Wheeler (2.23 ERA in 11 postseason starts) demonstrated why he is baseball's best big-game pitcher. In Game 1 of the Phillies' division series against the Mets last month, he threw seven scoreless innings, throwing the most pitches (111) and posting the best game score (80) among starters in the 2024 playoffs. At age 34, Wheeler is at the peak of his powers, and many managers across the sport would choose him to start a crucial game.

Wheeler's Impact on the Phillies

In March, Wheeler agreed to a three-year, $126 million extension, keeping him with the Phillies through 2027. This extension defines the duration of the Phillies' window to win the World Series with their existing core. Every year that passes without a parade down Broad Street feels like a wasted opportunity. The last great Phillies righty had a 2.80 ERA and achieved remarkable success from age 30 to 34. However, injuries affected Roy Halladay's career at 35. Halladay won the Cy Young in 2010 and was a runner-up in 2011 but faced setbacks later. Wheeler, on the other hand, has been better with age. After recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery, he was 7% better than league average in his age 28 and 29 seasons with the Mets. With the Phillies, he has been 42% better than league average over the last two years at age 33 and 34.

Wheeler's Pitching Evolution

In 2023, Wheeler added a sweeper to his arsenal, which became his third-most frequently used pitch. This year, he also developed a splitter to neutralize left-handed hitters. With the splitter, he held lefties to a.200 average and.222 overall, compared to a.261 mark without it. He believes in mixing up his pitches to stay fresh and unpredictable. "If you keep the same bag of tools all the time, they're going to know what you throw in certain counts or what you start and finish with," Wheeler said. His pitching coach, Caleb Cotham, noted that Wheeler's delivery has improved, with better timing and a more connected body, allowing him to throw breaking balls more safely.

Wheeler's Cy Young Contention

For the second time in four years, Wheeler is a Cy Young finalist. In 2021, he finished second to Corbin Burnes, falling just two votes shy despite throwing 46⅓ more innings. This still stings. In spring training, Wheeler admitted that winning the Cy Young was a goal and backed it up with a career-best 2.57 ERA. He went at least six innings and allowed no more than two runs in his final 11 starts, the longest such streak by a Phillies pitcher since 1893. Braves lefty Chris Sale is the presumptive Cy Young favorite, but there wasn't much difference between them. While Sale led the National League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts, Wheeler made three more starts and worked 22⅓ more innings. Bryce Harper believes Wheeler deserved the Cy Young in 2021 and thinks he earned it this year. If Wheeler doesn't win, it will remain on his bucket list, along with the World Series trophy that the Phillies have been seeking since 2008. And there is no more important player in this pursuit. "You come into the season and that's one of your personal goals — to win [the Cy Young]," Wheeler said. "I don't think there's anything wrong with personal goals. Because if you set those and you do well and you accomplish them or come even close to it, you're helping the team a lot. That's all I try to do every year — try to be the best I possibly can. I know that'll help the team."